Nigeria Targets 18.7% Revenue-to-GDP Ratio, Cuts Debt-Service Burden to 21% by 2030 – Uzoka-Anite
Nigeria Targets 18.7% Revenue-to-GDP Ratio, Cuts Debt-Service Burden to 21% by 2030 – Uzoka-Anite
The Federal Government has projected an increase in government revenue to 18.7 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a reduction in the Federal Government’s debt-service-to-revenue ratio to 21.01 per cent by 2030, as part of efforts to secure investment-grade sovereign credit rating.
The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, disclosed this on thursday while delivering a keynote address at the 2026 International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited.
Speaking on the theme, *“Achieving Investment-Grade Rating by 2030: The Roadmap for Nigeria,”* Uzoka-Anite said the country’s credit rating ambition was anchored on stronger public finances, sustainable debt management, economic diversification, increased productivity and credible institutions.
She explained that the projections formed part of the proposed National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030, which seeks to transform Nigeria into a diversified, resilient and globally competitive $1 trillion economy by the end of the decade.
According to her, government revenue is projected to rise from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030, while the debt-service-to-revenue ratio is expected to decline from 62.93 per cent to 21.01 per cent within the same period.
She stressed, however, that the targets remained projections whose achievement would depend on effective reforms, economic growth, prudent borrowing and improved revenue collection.
The minister said sovereign credit ratings were not merely assessments of a country’s ability to meet its financial obligations but also reflected investor confidence in its economic institutions, policy environment and capacity to attract long-term capital.
“Investment grade should be the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances, improved debt dynamics, rising productivity, stronger external buffers and credible institutions, not an end in itself,” she said.
Uzoka-Anite noted that achieving investment-grade status would require Nigeria to address structural weaknesses, restore macroeconomic stability, expand productive capacity and establish a more predictable environment for investment.
She recalled that Nigeria recorded average real GDP growth of 3.11 per cent under the National Development Plan 2021–2025, below the target of 4.65 per cent, highlighting persistent challenges involving fiscal capacity, inflation, infrastructure and industrial productivity.
While acknowledging improvements in economic performance, she said the country continued to face significant cost-of-living pressures and poverty, underscoring the need to ensure that economic reforms translated into tangible improvements in citizens’ welfare.
The minister cited the International Monetary Fund’s June 2026 assessment, which projected Nigeria’s real GDP growth at 4.1 per cent for 2026 and noted improvements in the country’s external reserves.
She said the Federal Government had pursued reforms since 2023, including the removal of petrol subsidies, foreign exchange market reforms, improvements in public financial management and measures to increase domestic revenue mobilisation.
According to her, the four major tax laws enacted in 2025 are also expected to simplify tax administration, improve compliance and strengthen revenue generation.
She added that the success of the reforms should ultimately be measured by their ability to promote economic stability, reduce production costs, create jobs and improve living standards.
On public expenditure, Uzoka-Anite said the proposed development plan projected capital expenditure to account for 57.43 per cent of total government spending by 2030, compared with 36.03 per cent in 2025.
She said achieving the target would require efficient project preparation, transparent procurement, effective monitoring and accountability for results.
On debt management, the minister said public debt was projected to decline from 36.07 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030 under the proposed plan.
She emphasised that borrowing should support productive investments capable of expanding the economy rather than worsening fiscal pressures.
Uzoka-Anite added that the government would continue to strengthen debt management, manage refinancing risks and deepen domestic capital markets, while exploring financing instruments such as Sukuk, green bonds and carefully structured public-private partnerships.
She said the country’s ability to achieve a stronger credit profile would also depend on its capacity to diversify exports, employment and foreign exchange earnings away from a narrow economic base.
According to her, agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics offer significant opportunities for expanding productive capacity and attracting investment.
The proposed NDP 2026–2030 projects real GDP growth to increase from 4.68 per cent in 2026 to 10.34 per cent in 2030, averaging 7.79 per cent over the plan period.
It also projects gross capital formation to rise to 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, with the private sector expected to account for approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment.
The minister said the ambitious targets would require improvements in infrastructure, energy supply, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.
She maintained that government alone could not finance the country’s development requirements, stressing the need to create an enabling environment for private investment, strengthen domestic value chains and support productivity-enhancing sectors.
Uzoka-Anite identified institutional strengthening and policy credibility as the fourth pillar of Nigeria’s creditworthiness strategy, noting that investors required confidence in government policies, procurement processes, regulatory systems and economic statistics.
She said the government was strengthening public financial management, project monitoring and evaluation, while improving the quality of economic data to support evidence-based policymaking.
The minister disclosed that the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning was institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to monitor key indicators, including economic growth, inflation, revenue, fiscal balances, debt, investment, employment and external-sector developments.
She added that the government had also constituted a Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee to report to the Economic Management Team on the performance of key macroeconomic indicators.
According to her, the initiatives would improve policy coordination, strengthen accountability and support timely responses to emerging economic challenges.
She further said the Renewed Hope Ward-Based Development Programme would help connect national development priorities with local infrastructure, production, employment and basic services across Nigeria’s 8,809 wards.
However, she noted that the programme’s success would depend on adequate financing, effective targeting, transparent implementation and measurable outcomes.
Uzoka-Anite stressed that the credibility of the National Development Plan would depend not only on its projections but also on effective implementation, coordination with annual budgets and alignment with development plans at the subnational level.
She said regular reporting, reliable data and transparent monitoring would enable investors and development partners to assess the country’s progress, while credit rating agencies would continue to provide independent assessments of Nigeria’s economic resilience.
The minister maintained that Nigeria possessed significant economic advantages, including a large domestic market, abundant natural resources, a dynamic private sector and a growing digital economy.
She said the challenge was to translate these advantages into sustainable investment, higher productivity, job creation and inclusive growth.
Uzoka-Anite reaffirmed the Federal Government’s commitment to building a productive, resilient and competitive economy, saying the country’s ambition to achieve investment-grade sovereign credit quality by 2030 was closely linked to the broader objective of becoming a $1 trillion economy.
She commended DataPro Limited for organising the webinar, describing it as an important platform for promoting dialogue on sovereign creditworthiness, investment and Africa’s long-term economic development.
